Peripheral Produce — Week Ahead

The call

Tonight's strongest signals

Every district, every commodity

One row per district's latest USDA report — a figure where the history supports one, and a plain “no” where it doesn't.

How to read this

Paused: districts disagree today — on split days a tone called the week right only 49% of the time.

Withheld: the history doesn't support a figure, so none is shown.

Weather this week

Where it lands next: the terminal markets

How to read this

Tone steps score USDA's words from −3 to +3: “steady” 0, “firm” +0.5, “slightly higher” +1, “higher” +2, “much higher” +3, and the same downward. The figures above are what one step has added to a terminal price, on average.

Followed: of a market's real price moves since 2025, the share that went the way the origin's tone pointed.

Market by market, sorted by the 10-day figure. Tap a market for its numbers.

How it's figured

Each market's dot is measured across every origin it buys from, not one lane alone; the line is the 95% bootstrap confidence interval for the 10-day figure.

Lanes to watch tonight

Origins leaning clearly up or down tonight, and the markets their product reached in the last two weeks.

Track record

A forecast is only worth what it has already got right. Every call is scored a week later against USDA's own prices — misses included, nothing removed.

Read this before you lean on it

Knowing where a signal stops is what makes it usable.

This is a statistical description of public USDA reports, not advice. Each figure says what the same USDA tone was followed by in the past; it is not a price anyone should charge or pay, an offer, or a guarantee of any future price.

Disclaimer. Built from public data published by the USDA Agricultural Marketing Service. Peripheral Produce is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or acting on behalf of the USDA or any government agency. Figures are shown for general market information only. They are not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell, not a substitute for a broker's quote, and not a guarantee of any price you will be able to transact at. Prices are as reported by USDA on the dates shown; no warranty is given as to accuracy, completeness, or timeliness, and Peripheral Produce accepts no liability for decisions made in reliance on them.

Other sources. Weather forecasts from the US National Weather Service, Environment and Climate Change Canada, and ECMWF open data (CC BY 4.0; rain amounts for every region). Weather history from NOAA GHCN-Daily (public domain); Yuma heat units from Arizona Meteorological Network (AZMet) data, University of Arizona; Canadian heat units from Environment and Climate Change Canada daily climate records (contains information licenced under the Data Server End-use Licence of Environment and Climate Change Canada); Mexican heat units from daily station records of the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN), Comisión Nacional del Agua (CONAGUA). Live city lookups from MET Norway (CC BY 4.0) and OpenStreetMap place search (© OpenStreetMap contributors). Headlines are aggregated via Google News RSS and link to the publisher; headline, source and link only, no article text is fetched or stored.

© 2026 Peripheral Produce. All rights reserved. USDA source data is in the public domain; the analysis, derived figures, and presentation here are not.